A Super El Niño event means that the average sea surface temperatures in certain parts of the Pacific Ocean rise by 2°C or more. Such an event will bring a significant climactic impact, which could severely disrupt the global travel industry.
Scientists have suggested that the world might see a Super El Niño event in the next couple of years. In this post we will explore what the Super El Niño could mean for travel destinations, with some tips on how travel agents and tour operators might prepare.
The Potential Impact of Super El Niño
Rising sea temperatures can lead to a host of climate impacts, including:
- Severe flooding
- High temperatures
- Drought, and an increased risk of wildfires and cyclones
- Food shortages
- Disruption to water supplies
How Will a Super El Niño Affect the UK?
The impacts of a Super El Niño will vary considerably at different times of the year, and in different parts of the world. In the UK, for example, an El Niño event usually leads to warmer summers and colder winters.
Which Countries Are Most Affected by the Super El Niño?
A Super El Niño event will have the biggest impact on countries that are close to the particularly warm areas of the Pacific Ocean. Some of these countries may see unusually hot and dry conditions, while others may see extremely wet conditions, with an increased risk of flooding.
Many of these countries are popular travel destinations in the winter months. Below we will take a closer look at some of the areas that travellers may choose to avoid outright in the coming years, so as not to face severe disruption and other risks.
What Does The Super El Niño Mean For Travel Destinations?
The following travel destinations are likely to be particularly affected:
- California – Heavy rains can lead to flooding, and even mudslides, which could result in road closures and other disruption.
- Peru and Ecuador – As these countries are the closest to the excessively warm areas of the Pacific Ocean, they could see the biggest impact from a Super El Niño event. Both countries could see extreme rainfalls and a critical risk of flooding.
- Australia – Queensland and the wider northeast area of Australia could see soaring temperatures with a potential for drought.
- Southeast Asia – Countries such as Indonesia and Thailand may also experience drought conditions, with a risk of wildfire and water shortages.
How Should Travel Agents and Tour Operators Prepare For a Super El Niño Event?
Travel agents and tour operators should take steps to manage the risks of a Super El Niño event, while ensuring that their customers are aware that high Pacific temperatures can lead to significant travel disruption and other risks.
Look For Alternative Destinations
Some areas may actually benefit from a Super El Niño event. As we mentioned above, it usually means hotter summers for the UK, so many travellers may simply choose to stay closer to home.
Super El Niño is unlikely to affect snowfall in The Alps, so any travel agents or tour operators who usually sell packages to North American ski resorts may choose to focus on European resorts instead.
Also, the effects of Super El Niño can vary wildly across individual countries, too. Travel agents and tour operators may not have to look very far when seeking alternative travel destinations. For example, while drought may hit southern Thailand, northern Thailand may experience relatively cooler temperatures.
How to Stay On Top Of Developments And Keep Travellers Informed
The UK Government routinely provides travel advice for over 200 overseas countries or territories. During a Super El Niño event, this advice could cover the risks of drought, flooding, wildfires, and other climate impacts.
Find a way to stay on top of the latest travel advice, and take steps to keep your customers updated on any developments. Aim to communicate frequently and consistently, and try to establish an expectation that situations can change quickly.
Read our full guide to communicating travel advice to customers.
Contingency Planning and Insurance
Risk management and contingency planning can give you a clear course of action to follow in the event of an emergency situation, whether this is a simple cancelled flight, or mass disruption following a flash flood or a wildfire.
Outline the immediate steps you would take in order to support your customers and ensure they can stay safe. For example, how would you stay in touch with overseas travellers in situations where established lines of communication may be affected?
Also be sure to advise your customers on the cover they might expect from their travel insurance, along with the limits to the cover. For example, travel cover may not apply if a customer ignores the travel advise and intentionally travels to a high-risk area.
Specialist Insurance Services For Travel Agents and Tour Operators
At James Hallam we have provided dedicated insurance services for travel agents and tour operators for over 35 years. In this time, we have provided advice from our experienced team and cover throughout numerous Super El Niño events.
Find out more about our bespoke insurance services for travel agents and tour operators or call us on 0203 967 1923 or email david.mcgregor@jameshallam.co.uk.